In this study, modelling techniques were applied to explore plum production profitability under different scenarios in order to aid decision-making in the industry. The analyses were done on two output levels: 1) a scenario-based stochastic simulation at farm-level that considers macro-economic factors, and 2) a sensitivity analysis of the effect of different production costs, Rand per carton and yield scenarios on the number of export cartons needed to break even for each of the different cultivar categories. Whilst the situation for each individual producer will likely differ from the industry average, the key takeaway here is therefore the direction the different scenarios could steer the profitability of a farming enterprise. It serves decision-makers to consider which strategy to take to achieve at least break-even production levels.
For the SA Fruit Journal, where the article was published, click here.