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October 31, 2022
Meat price increases were repeatedly highlighted in the domestic food inflation statistics in 2022. In this brief, Dr. Tracy Davids explores the direct and indirect drivers of this phenomenon and the prospects for normalisation in future. Download here to read the full brief.
December 18, 2018
A reality check regarding current-season rainfall and expectations for the 2019 maize crop. Read more.
August 19, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for July 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for July 2021 was recorded at 6.7% (similar to June 2021), with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Oils / fats (+22.4% year-on-year) and meat (+9.4%) […]
December 12, 2022
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) should not be seen as something that is done at the end of an initiative or programme to report on historic performance but rather a tool to provide real time information and insights that enable efficient and effective decision making to drive future sustainability and impact. In this brief, BFAP introduces […]
September 16, 2021
This BFAP brief strives to inform the perennial debate on the extent of market concentration in South Africa’s agriculture sector. The complexity of the country’s food system warrants relevant context on the issue, preventing generalisation and over simplification because of some debilitating data challenges. Read the full brief here and a shortened version that appeared in […]
October 25, 2021
Louw Pienaar took part in the monthly series held by Beanstalk Global & The PMA in South Africa, with the spotlight on kiwifruit this month. Read more about it here.
December 14, 2021
Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).
September 2, 2019
From irrigated orchards to arid pasture areas, the costs and profits for each hectare of farming land vary wildly; The Business Day published an informative piece: Read more
November 24, 2021
Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).
June 2, 2021
Over the past few years, in South Africa, there has been a slow but steady trend within the local feed industry from using imported to domestically produced soybean meal as the domestic soybean crushing industry matured. To include locally produced soybean meal in their formulations/rations, the feed industry requires a reliable and consistent supply of […]
December 5, 2021
The Food Dialogue sessions are presented by the Southern Africa Food Lab, an initiative of the Faculty of AgriSciences at Stellenbosch University. It regularly brings together diverse, influential stakeholders in Southern Africa food systems to respond to systemic issues in creative ways and to inspire change in how we think and act on complex social […]
August 31, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained further momentum in July 2022, with a 1.1% increase from June 2022, resulting in the latest annual figure being 9.7%. As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, followed by meat and grain-based foods. Download here to read the […]
April 3, 2019
Read our latest press release on the competitiveness of the South African broiler industry here.
October 3, 2022
In the second quarter of 2022, the agricultural sector contracted by 7.7% quarter on quarter and 20.9% year on year. This follows a slower summer crop harvest, and a sharp rise in input costs, which more than offset revenue gains. Find the brief here.
January 31, 2022
Prof Ferdi Meyer discusses the contribution of South Africa’s agricultural sector as well as the informal agricultural market to ensure food security in Southern Africa. Watch it here:
June 14, 2022
In the first quarter of 2022, the agricultural sector grew by 0.8% quarter on quarter and 3.6% year on year. While high prices resulting from international market dynamics are supporting revenue, sharp cost increases are constraining profits. For the full year 2022, BFAP expects positive growth in the sector, but the rate of growth is […]
November 8, 2021
Ferdi Meyer and Tracy Davids wrote an opinion piece unpacking the opportunities and limits of import replacement for South African veggie oils. Read the full brief here and a shortened version that appeared in the Business Day here. For enquiries, please contact Ferdi Meyer (ferdi@bfap.co.za) or Tracy Davids (tracy@bfap.co.za).
November 21, 2017
In an Afrikaans interview, Prof Ferdi Meyer explains the pivotal role that projections on agricultural prices, production, consumption and trade have on businesses and policy decisions.
December 8, 2021
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
March 29, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages accelerated even further, with a 6.4% increase in February compared to 5.7% in January 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of oils and fats, meat, vegetables and fish. Download here to read the full brief.
July 27, 2022
Inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages continued to gain momentum in June 2022, with similar inflation levels last seen in March 2017. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in meat and breads / cereals, as well as plant oil products and dairy and eggs. Download here to read the full brief.
December 12, 2022
South Africa’s agricultural GDP rose by 22.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2022 – a correction from the sharp decline in Q2 due to the delayed maize harvest. This publication contextualises the latest release of GDP statistics by StatsSA and provides insights on the major factors driving agriculture’s contribution to GDP. Find the brief […]
March 7, 2023
In this BFAP quarterly employment brief we highlight the agricultural job performance for the final quarter of 2022. We unpack how two important factors, loadshedding and another big hike in minimum wages, are expected to affect employment levels in 2023, by using the blueberry industry as an example. Click here to read more.
June 10, 2021
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP increased by 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021, but agriculture, which was the star performer in 2020, contracted by 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis. However, a direct comparison of Q1 2021 to Q1 2020, in real terms, reflects growth of 7.5%. This follows strong […]
February 1, 2022
In this publication, BFAP contextualises recent rainfall statistics and presents its view on the impact of excessive rainfall on summer crop production in the 2021/2022 season. Read or download the full report here.
February 22, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages accelerated to 5.7% in January, from 5.5% in December 2021. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of cereals, bread, oils and fats, milk and eggs, and vegetables. Download here to read the full brief.
April 14, 2022
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
June 4, 2021
The results from the latest labour market survey are unpacked in this Agricultural Employment Brief. We explain potential reasons behind the reported drastic decline in farm employment in the past few quarters, which seems to stand in contrast with the recent performance of the industry. Click here to read more.
November 18, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for October 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for October 2021 was 6.1%, showing a slight moderation from September levels. Among food categories, oils / fats (+20.9% year-on-year), meat (+9.1%) and vegetables (+7.2%) exhibited the […]
September 23, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for August 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for August 2021 was higher than expected, at 6.9%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Among food categories, oils / fats (+21.3% year-on-year) and meat […]
June 28, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained momentum, with a 7.6% increase in May compared to 6.0% in April 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, meat and grain-based foods. Download here to read the full brief.
May 17, 2018
More than two months have passed since the World Health Organisation confirmed that the listeriosis outbreak in SA was the biggest globally, and consumers in the country were cautioned about the dangers of consuming contaminated products…
October 31, 2022
Agricultural has the ability to play a significant role in value chain decarbonisation and in reducing poverty by improving food security and creating sustainable jobs – all critical objectives within the Global Sustainable Development Goals. In this brief BFAP provides an overview to their systematic framework and approach to identifying and prioritising agricultural initiatives that […]
July 22, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics and its associated causes for June 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for June 2021 was recorded at 6.7%. According to the FAO world food price index, global food prices recorded for June decreased for the first time in 12 months. This was driven by […]
September 19, 2021
South Africa has faced multiple waves of COVID-19 infections since March 2020 with various levels of economic restrictions imposed to control the pandemic’s spread. Such actions included intermittent bans on alcoholic beverage sales, which have had a substantial impact on the wine sector. This purpose of this paper is to quantify this impact, using a […]
March 3, 2023
South African year-on-year inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages increased to 13.4% in January 2023 – 1.0 percentage point higher than in December 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and animal-source foods, followed by vegetables. Download here to read the full brief.
May 31, 2022
Fresh fruit producers and exporters find themselves in unprecedented times and murky waters. Evidence suggests that the current logistics situation – domestically and globally – is a cause for major concern, threatening the sustainability of agricultural investments and jobs. In this brief, BFAP and ABSA Agribusiness contextualises this critical issue. Download here to read the […]
November 25, 2021
Food Security – Prontuit | 15 November 2021 | KykNET South African’s grocery baskets are becoming smaller and are costing more. Prontuit discussed rising food prices and food security with Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz and Professor Ferdi Meyer, Managing Director of BFAP. Watch it here:
November 26, 2020
The latest version of our ten year outlook is available here now. You can also watch recordings of the launch here.
November 15, 2021
Louw Pienaar and Wandile Sihlobo wrote an opinion piece in the Business Day. Article available here.
October 21, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for September 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for September 2021 was higher than expected, recorded at 6.6% (0.3 percentage points lower than in August 2021), following an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Oils […]
June 2, 2021
Over the past 10 years (2010-2020) the South African soyabean industry has been one of the country’s biggest agricultural and agro-processing success stories. The area planted has more than doubled, production has nearly tripled and major investments in processing facilities have boosted total crushing capacity to 2.2 million tons (1.76 mil tons @ 80% utilisation) […]
December 9, 2021
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 1.5% in quarter 3. Based on a year on year comparison, agriculture contracted by 7.2%. While this was below expectation, it was largely a timing issue, where the largest portion of maize was delivered in Q2 2021, as opposed to the previous seasons’ crop which was largely delivered […]
February 4, 2019
In light of the preliminary area estimates published by the Crop Estimates Committee on 29 January 2019, Prof. Ferdi Meyer discusses impacts on the 2019 harvest year. Click Here to listen to the interview.
March 7, 2022
South Africa’s summer crops recovered remarkably in February from extremely wet conditions earlier in the year. Despite lower volumes compared to the record levels achieved in 2021, high global prices will support higher revenue. In this brief, BFAP also considers how the current turmoil in global markets will affect South Africa’s agricultural performance. Read or […]
March 11, 2022
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 1.2% in the last quarter of 2021. For the full year 2021, South Africa’s GDP increased by 4.9%, with agriculture, forestry and fisheries at 12.2%. The agricultural industry expanded by 8.3%, with the growth in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was driven mostly by an 11% […]
February 25, 2019
To produce relevant insights, BFAP needs to process increasingly large datasets, “Big Data”, to inform decision-making. Marion discusses BFAP’s aim with the Data Science division with Grootplaas, click here to listen to the interview.
October 20, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained significant further momentum in September 2022, with a 0.5% increase from August 2022. As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods followed by meat. Download here to read the full brief.
February 6, 2023
The African Continental Free trade Area (AfCFTA) was signed in 2018 and entered into force in 2019. Some aspects of the agreement still need to be finalised. It is expected to increase intra-Africa trade opportunities when fully implemented. The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the trade opportunities as it is the mainstay of most […]
June 1, 2022
South Africa is exceptionally vulnerable to climate variability and changing weather patterns since it is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and limited in high potential cropping land. Governments, the private sector, donor organisations and the public worldwide are making firm commitments to accelerate mitigation and adaptation actions to address climate change, and the pressure for […]
March 4, 2023
In this report, BFAP assesses the adoption trends of GM maize seed in South Africa. The main objective of this ongoing Maize Trust supported initiative is to estimate the most recent maize production season’s GM maize planting areas and GM trait adoption trends, as seed sales figures become available, in order to expand the historic database on […]
December 12, 2022
In this BFAP quarterly employment brief we highlight the agricultural job performance for the 3rd quarter of 2022. Although different surveys, such as the QLFS and the Agricultural Survey paint somewhat contrasting pictures, BFAP unpacks the reasons why we see the agricultural labour market as still robust and strong. Click here to read more.
September 27, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained significant further momentum in August 2022, with a 1.8% increase from July 2022 (representing the highest month-on-month increase since April 2016). As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, followed by grain-based foods and animal-source foods. Download here to […]
January 24, 2022
Since our previous inflation brief in November 2021, the identification of the Omicron variant, combined with excessive rainfall in the summer rainfall areas, has presented the possibility of further supply disruptions that could affect global and local inflation. Food inflation figures for December 2021 came in at 5.9%, whilst food and non-alcoholic beverages were slightly more modest […]
May 25, 2021
Maize prices remain high – despite the expectation of a bumper harvest. BFAP’s Tracy Davids and Wandile Sihlobo (Agbiz) unpack some key reasons in this article – first written for Business Day – suggesting that global drivers are the major reason for persistently high prices domestically. The biggest factor is strong import demand from China, […]
September 20, 2021
Tracy Davids and Ferdi Meyer wrote an opinion piece in the Business Day. The article is available here.
November 5, 2021
BFAP has undertaken a study, funded by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to provide a deeper understanding of the key drivers of quality of soybean products for feed use in South Africa. Dr. Wiltrud Durandt, Ms. Helga Ottermann, Ms. Louise Cloete and Mrs. Marion Delport authored a report unpacking the drivers of soybean product quality at farm-level, […]
January 27, 2023
Month-on-month inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages has been losing momentum from October 2022 (+0.9%) to December 2022 (+0.4%). Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and vegetable oil products, followed by animal-source foods. Download here to read the full brief.
February 6, 2023
Potato fresh produce prices on South African markets can vary significantly depending on seasonality and the specific market under consideration. Qualitative characteristics (like potato class, size and packaging size) and even the potato cultivar or variety offered can also play a role. BFAP undertook a hedonic price modelling study to inform industry stakeholders on the key […]
September 17, 2021
The 2021 edition of the BFAP Baseline was launched on 15 September 2021. The Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural and agro-processing production, consumption, prices and trade for the period 2021 to 2030. It considers the performance of South African agriculture and agro-processing and their contribution to inclusive growth and economic prosperity in the South […]
August 17, 2018
The Business Day reports on the BFAP baseline launch and the importance of good data to inform policy in South Africa. Read More
August 27, 2021
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
July 30, 2021
South Africa’s pork industry is small, but possesses immense growth potential. Relative affordability makes the product appealing and the industry ought to be able to contribute meaningfully to food security. South Africa’s pork consumption is low compared to global norms, but products seem to be gaining popularity locally, and are starting to appeal to a […]
December 14, 2021
Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).
September 9, 2021
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2021, with agriculture growing by 6.2% on the same basis. However, a direct comparison of Q2 2021 to Q2 2020, in real terms, reflects growth of 15.9% – exceptional performance in a weak economic environment. The star performer was the field crop […]
June 8, 2022
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
September 26, 2022
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
March 9, 2022
In this webinar, BFAP provided an annual Baseline Outlook Projection for 2022-2031 for the South African blueberry industry. Furthermore, this outlook is incorporated into three financial simulation models for three typical blueberry enterprises to contextualise farm level production within a national and global context. The webinar can be watched here and the BFAP presentation can […]
August 26, 2021
Louw Pienaar and Wandile Sihlobo wrote an opinion piece in the Business Day. Article available here: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2021-08-25-make-kiwifruit-part-of-the-agriculture-master-plan/
November 28, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained further momentum in October 2022, with a 0.9% increase from September 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and meat followed by vegetable oil products. Download here to read the full brief.
May 30, 2022
One in five farmers in South Africa plans to leave the sector in the next decade, research shows. Stellenbosch University PhD graduate and BFAP researcher Kandas Cloete investigated farm-level exit decisions and exit rates in commercial agriculture in South Africa, looking into the various reasons farmers plan to leave the sector. A media report can be read […]
October 23, 2018
Investment into seed research is vital for a sustainable and competitive agricultural sector. In this context, this overview looks at the importance of a breeding and technology levy for wheat, barley and soybeans in South Africa. View the summary report here
June 30, 2022
Competition for land and water, always present, is becoming more prevalent across all sectors of the economy. The sustainable management of these finite resources will ultimately determine the ability of South Africa to deliver against the increasingly interconnected and complex agenda around improved livelihoods, while maintaining and protecting the planet. Download here to read the […]
February 17, 2022
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a global heightened awareness of hand hygiene, with a specific focus on proper hand washing and the use of hand sanitisers (HS) to limit the spread of the virus. During mid- 2021 BFAP and the Plant Pathology Division within the Department of Plant and Soil Sciences at the University […]
June 1, 2021
BFAP expects a sharp, almost 50 thousand hectare contraction in the area planted to Barley in 2021, with producers shifting into Canola and wheat instead. BFAP analysts Divan van der Westhuizen and Tracy Davids unpack some of the reasons in an article published in the June 2021 Edition of Oilseed Focus. Barley stocks increased sharply […]
May 19, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages eased slightly, with a 6.0% increase in April compared to 6.2% in March 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of vegetables oils and meat, with inflation on bread and cereals also gaining momentum. Download here to read the full brief or listen to the […]
March 28, 2018
Louw Pienaar was interviewed by the SABC regarding the drought policy brief, recently published by the Western Cape Department of Agriculture and BFAP.
June 24, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics and its associated causes for May 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for May 2021 was recorded at 6.7%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021 and representing the highest level of food inflation since July 2017. Main driving forces included plant oil supply […]
April 22, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages eased slightly, with a 6.2% increase in March compared to 6.4% in February 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of bread and cereals, meat, fish, dairy and eggs as well as oils and fats. Download here to read the full brief.