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Access the Baseline 2022 publication through the BFAP Baseline Site. Click Here to download
Meat price increases were repeatedly highlighted in the domestic food inflation statistics in 2022. In this brief, Dr. Tracy Davids explores the direct and indirect drivers of this phenomenon and the prospects for normalisation in future. Download here to read the full brief.
June 24, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics and its associated causes for May 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for May 2021 was recorded at 6.7%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021 and representing the highest level of food inflation since July 2017. Main driving forces included plant oil supply […]
January 24, 2022
Since our previous inflation brief in November 2021, the identification of the Omicron variant, combined with excessive rainfall in the summer rainfall areas, has presented the possibility of further supply disruptions that could affect global and local inflation. Food inflation figures for December 2021 came in at 5.9%, whilst food and non-alcoholic beverages were slightly more modest […]
The introduction of protected designation of origin (PDO) type certification schemes in countries outside Europe is a recent phenomenon as the philosophy of origin based foods obtains global traction.
October 20, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained significant further momentum in September 2022, with a 0.5% increase from August 2022. As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods followed by meat. Download here to read the full brief.
Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected2 that year-‐on-‐year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%. These projections seem to be in line with the last increases that are reported by Statistics South Africa. The impacts are already apparent in retail products derived from maize, with super maize meal increasing 22% year on year in January 2016.
BFAP explores key factors expected to shape South Africa’s food inflation over the next 3 months and the cost of healthy eating. Read More.
November 28, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained further momentum in October 2022, with a 0.9% increase from September 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and meat followed by vegetable oil products. Download here to read the full brief.
April 22, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages eased slightly, with a 6.2% increase in March compared to 6.4% in February 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of bread and cereals, meat, fish, dairy and eggs as well as oils and fats. Download here to read the full brief.
BFAP explores key factors expected to shape South Africa’s food inflation over the next 3 months and the cost of healthy eating. Read more.
In March 2021, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 5.7% from March 2020 and 0.8% from February 2021. The BFAP thrifty healthy food basket, which represents a more diverse basket than the CPI, increased by 8.6% from March 2020 and 1.4% from February 2021. Food inflation was mostly driven by oils and fats, along […]
March 3, 2023
South African year-on-year inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages increased to 13.4% in January 2023 – 1.0 percentage point higher than in December 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and animal-source foods, followed by vegetables. Download here to read the full brief.
July 22, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics and its associated causes for June 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for June 2021 was recorded at 6.7%. According to the FAO world food price index, global food prices recorded for June decreased for the first time in 12 months. This was driven by […]
July 27, 2022
Inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages continued to gain momentum in June 2022, with similar inflation levels last seen in March 2017. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in meat and breads / cereals, as well as plant oil products and dairy and eggs. Download here to read the full brief.
June 28, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained momentum, with a 7.6% increase in May compared to 6.0% in April 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, meat and grain-based foods. Download here to read the full brief.
This report evaluates the impact of the 2015/2016 drought on the South African economy, on commercial and smallholder producers, and on consumers. Download.
March 29, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages accelerated even further, with a 6.4% increase in February compared to 5.7% in January 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of oils and fats, meat, vegetables and fish. Download here to read the full brief.
September 23, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for August 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for August 2021 was higher than expected, at 6.9%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Among food categories, oils / fats (+21.3% year-on-year) and meat […]
With rapid exchange rate depreciation and an uncertain political climate in South Africa, BFAP explores food price trends over the next three months. Read more
February 22, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages accelerated to 5.7% in January, from 5.5% in December 2021. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of cereals, bread, oils and fats, milk and eggs, and vegetables. Download here to read the full brief.
January 27, 2023
Month-on-month inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages has been losing momentum from October 2022 (+0.9%) to December 2022 (+0.4%). Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and vegetable oil products, followed by animal-source foods. Download here to read the full brief.
August 31, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained further momentum in July 2022, with a 1.1% increase from June 2022, resulting in the latest annual figure being 9.7%. As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, followed by meat and grain-based foods. Download here to read the […]
Benign food inflation, as experienced in early 2019, seems to gaining momentum on the back of higher commodity prices and a weaker exchange rate. These factors are also expected to support inflationary trends going into the new year. Read more.
Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected that year-on-year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%.
This report covers recent trends and a food inflation outlook over the next three months. Read report.
November 18, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for October 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for October 2021 was 6.1%, showing a slight moderation from September levels. Among food categories, oils / fats (+20.9% year-on-year), meat (+9.1%) and vegetables (+7.2%) exhibited the […]
In light of its recent classification by the Department of Trade and Industry as an industry in distress, this paper undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of South African broiler production in the global context.
August 19, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for July 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for July 2021 was recorded at 6.7% (similar to June 2021), with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Oils / fats (+22.4% year-on-year) and meat (+9.4%) […]
September 27, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained significant further momentum in August 2022, with a 1.8% increase from July 2022 (representing the highest month-on-month increase since April 2016). As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, followed by grain-based foods and animal-source foods. Download here to […]
May 19, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages eased slightly, with a 6.0% increase in April compared to 6.2% in March 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of vegetables oils and meat, with inflation on bread and cereals also gaining momentum. Download here to read the full brief or listen to the […]
Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for April 2021 was recorded at 6.3%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Main driving forces included high global commodity prices and an increase in domestic manufacturing and distribution costs – not expected to abate soon. In this brief BFAP explores the cost of basic healthy eating, […]
Food inflation for January 2020 was recorded at 3.7%. For more on what we expect for the rest of the quarter read here.
October 21, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for September 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for September 2021 was higher than expected, recorded at 6.6% (0.3 percentage points lower than in August 2021), following an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Oils […]