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Meat price increases were repeatedly highlighted in the domestic food inflation statistics in 2022. In this brief, Dr. Tracy Davids explores the direct and indirect drivers of this phenomenon and the prospects for normalisation in future. Download here to read the full brief.
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for August 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for August 2021 was higher than expected, at 6.9%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Among food categories, oils / fats (+21.3% year-on-year) and meat […]
Over the past few years, in South Africa, there has been a slow but steady trend within the local feed industry from using imported to domestically produced soybean meal as the domestic soybean crushing industry matured. To include locally produced soybean meal in their formulations/rations, the feed industry requires a reliable and consistent supply of […]
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics and its associated causes for May 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for May 2021 was recorded at 6.7%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021 and representing the highest level of food inflation since July 2017. Main driving forces included plant oil supply […]
Maize prices remain high – despite the expectation of a bumper harvest. BFAP’s Tracy Davids and Wandile Sihlobo (Agbiz) unpack some key reasons in this article – first written for Business Day – suggesting that global drivers are the major reason for persistently high prices domestically. The biggest factor is strong import demand from China, […]
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages eased slightly, with a 6.0% increase in April compared to 6.2% in March 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of vegetables oils and meat, with inflation on bread and cereals also gaining momentum. Download here to read the full brief or listen to the […]
Month-on-month inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages has been losing momentum from October 2022 (+0.9%) to December 2022 (+0.4%). Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and vegetable oil products, followed by animal-source foods. Download here to read the full brief.
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained further momentum in July 2022, with a 1.1% increase from June 2022, resulting in the latest annual figure being 9.7%. As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, followed by meat and grain-based foods. Download here to read the […]
Benign food inflation, as experienced in early 2019, seems to gaining momentum on the back of higher commodity prices and a weaker exchange rate. These factors are also expected to support inflationary trends going into the new year. Read more.
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for July 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for July 2021 was recorded at 6.7% (similar to June 2021), with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Oils / fats (+22.4% year-on-year) and meat (+9.4%) […]
This study uses vertical price transmission analysis, with time series econometric techniques, to determine how underlying commodity prices manifest in final retail prices and the associated reasons for it. Implications for food inflation are also reflected on.
The introduction of protected designation of origin (PDO) type certification schemes in countries outside Europe is a recent phenomenon as the philosophy of origin based foods obtains global traction.
The Government of the Republic of Zambia has committed to transforming the economy to support economic growth and facilitate job creation. Central to the transformation agenda is a commitment to open trade regime for agricultural exports and imports. This collaboration between researchers from the World Bank, BFAP and IAPRI demonstrates and quantifies Zambia’s potential gains […]
Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected2 that year-‐on-‐year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%. These projections seem to be in line with the last increases that are reported by Statistics South Africa. The impacts are already apparent in retail products derived from maize, with super maize meal increasing 22% year on year in January 2016.
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) should not be seen as something that is done at the end of an initiative or programme to report on historic performance but rather a tool to provide real time information and insights that enable efficient and effective decision making to drive future sustainability and impact. In this brief, BFAP introduces […]
South African year-on-year inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages increased to 13.4% in January 2023 – 1.0 percentage point higher than in December 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and animal-source foods, followed by vegetables. Download here to read the full brief.
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics and its associated causes for June 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for June 2021 was recorded at 6.7%. According to the FAO world food price index, global food prices recorded for June decreased for the first time in 12 months. This was driven by […]
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
Louw Pienaar took part in the monthly series held by Beanstalk Global & The PMA in South Africa, with the spotlight on kiwifruit this month. Read more about it here.
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 1.5% in quarter 3. Based on a year on year comparison, agriculture contracted by 7.2%. While this was below expectation, it was largely a timing issue, where the largest portion of maize was delivered in Q2 2021, as opposed to the previous seasons’ crop which was largely delivered […]
Prof Ferdi Meyer discusses the contribution of South Africa’s agricultural sector as well as the informal agricultural market to ensure food security in Southern Africa. Watch it here:
This report benchmarks the efficiency of South-African broiler producers. It considers terms technical efficiency and production cost in SA relative to other leading producers globally. Read more here.
The national economy saw a record annual decline of -7%, the biggest contraction since at least 1946. By contrast, the agriculture sector realised an annual real GDP growth of 13.1%, which was the only sector, apart from government services, that saw any expansion. Click here to read more
South Africa is exceptionally vulnerable to climate variability and changing weather patterns since it is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and limited in high potential cropping land. Governments, the private sector, donor organisations and the public worldwide are making firm commitments to accelerate mitigation and adaptation actions to address climate change, and the pressure for […]
Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for April 2021 was recorded at 6.3%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Main driving forces included high global commodity prices and an increase in domestic manufacturing and distribution costs – not expected to abate soon. In this brief BFAP explores the cost of basic healthy eating, […]
Genetically modified (GM) crop technologies have made great strides since its first introduction in 1996. Although there is an extensive and growing body of literature on the economic impact of the adoption of GM crops in both developing and developed economies, there is only scant evidence that the technology has had any specific and distinguishable impact among female and male farmers. In economies where female farmers and female household members have a significant and often differentiated role in agriculture production, it is crucial to be able to answer this question.
Potato fresh produce prices on South African markets can vary significantly depending on seasonality and the specific market under consideration. Qualitative characteristics (like potato class, size and packaging size) and even the potato cultivar or variety offered can also play a role. BFAP undertook a hedonic price modelling study to inform industry stakeholders on the key […]
Ferdi Meyer and Tracy Davids wrote an opinion piece unpacking the opportunities and limits of import replacement for South African veggie oils. Read the full brief here and a shortened version that appeared in the Business Day here. For enquiries, please contact Ferdi Meyer (ferdi@bfap.co.za) or Tracy Davids (tracy@bfap.co.za).
The results from the latest labour market survey are unpacked in this Agricultural Employment Brief. We explain potential reasons behind the reported drastic decline in farm employment in the past few quarters, which seems to stand in contrast with the recent performance of the industry. Click here to read more.
BFAP researchers in collaboration with various colleagues recently published a chapter in AGRA’s Africa Agricultural Status Report 2019, entitled “Avoid Hitting the Wall by Leveraging Investments of Midstream Heroes in African Food Value Chains.” This chapter leverages market analyses and value chain work that BFAP has been doing for many years on the African continent. Read […]
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 1.2% in the last quarter of 2021. For the full year 2021, South Africa’s GDP increased by 4.9%, with agriculture, forestry and fisheries at 12.2%. The agricultural industry expanded by 8.3%, with the growth in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was driven mostly by an 11% […]
BFAP estimates that agriculture contracted by 8.9% on a year-on-year basis. Read this one-pager for some more details and context behind this contraction. Download Here.
Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected that year-on-year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%.
This paper sketches four plausible future scenarios for African food systems and discusses how policy choices will influence which of these scenarios is manifested in the next decades.
The Food Dialogue sessions are presented by the Southern Africa Food Lab, an initiative of the Faculty of AgriSciences at Stellenbosch University. It regularly brings together diverse, influential stakeholders in Southern Africa food systems to respond to systemic issues in creative ways and to inspire change in how we think and act on complex social […]
In March 2021, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 5.7% from March 2020 and 0.8% from February 2021. The BFAP thrifty healthy food basket, which represents a more diverse basket than the CPI, increased by 8.6% from March 2020 and 1.4% from February 2021. Food inflation was mostly driven by oils and fats, along […]
Over the past 10 years (2010-2020) the South African soyabean industry has been one of the country’s biggest agricultural and agro-processing success stories. The area planted has more than doubled, production has nearly tripled and major investments in processing facilities have boosted total crushing capacity to 2.2 million tons (1.76 mil tons @ 80% utilisation) […]
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
The study aims to improve understanding of meat demand in South Africa through the estimation of a Linear Approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) for the South African meat complex which includes beef, mutton, pork, and poultry.
Maize is an important staple crop in southern Africa that has often been prioritised from a policy perspective, particularly in the imposition of export controls under periods of perceived uncertainty…
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages accelerated even further, with a 6.4% increase in February compared to 5.7% in January 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of oils and fats, meat, vegetables and fish. Download here to read the full brief.
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained significant further momentum in August 2022, with a 1.8% increase from July 2022 (representing the highest month-on-month increase since April 2016). As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, followed by grain-based foods and animal-source foods. Download here to […]
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for October 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for October 2021 was 6.1%, showing a slight moderation from September levels. Among food categories, oils / fats (+20.9% year-on-year), meat (+9.1%) and vegetables (+7.2%) exhibited the […]
South Africa’s pork industry is small, but possesses immense growth potential. Relative affordability makes the product appealing and the industry ought to be able to contribute meaningfully to food security. South Africa’s pork consumption is low compared to global norms, but products seem to be gaining popularity locally, and are starting to appeal to a […]
Competition for land and water, always present, is becoming more prevalent across all sectors of the economy. The sustainable management of these finite resources will ultimately determine the ability of South Africa to deliver against the increasingly interconnected and complex agenda around improved livelihoods, while maintaining and protecting the planet. Download here to read the […]
BFAP was appointed by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to repeat the soybean calculator app roll out first developed in 2021. The team visited a dedicated study group of farmers who collaborated in measuring Soybean Yield losses during the 2022 harvesting season, with special focus on higher moisture content harvesting. Download the report summarising outcomes here: https://old.bfap.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Soybean-Yield-Loss-App_Report-2022_final-template_review.pdf
These reports present findings from the Policy Prioritisation through Value Chain analysis (PPVC) methodology applied in Kenya. Three deep dive value chains were selected: Coffee, Aquaculture and Beef. To Read the executive summary, click here. And for the full report, click here.
Soybeans and its related products are used in a multitude of forms in different food products. The main soy derivative products produced for the human food market are full-fat soybean meal, white flakes (also referred to as defatted soybean meal), textured vegetable protein (TVP), soy concentrates and soy isolates. Full fat soybean meal is mainly […]
Inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages continued to gain momentum in June 2022, with similar inflation levels last seen in March 2017. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in meat and breads / cereals, as well as plant oil products and dairy and eggs. Download here to read the full brief.
These reports present findings from the Policy Prioritisation through Value Chain analysis (PPVC) methodology applied in Kenya. Three deep dive value chains were selected: Coffee, Aquaculture and Beef. To Read the executive summary, click here. And for the full report, click here.
This report evaluates the impact of the 2015/2016 drought on the South African economy, on commercial and smallholder producers, and on consumers. Download.
Agricultural has the ability to play a significant role in value chain decarbonisation and in reducing poverty by improving food security and creating sustainable jobs – all critical objectives within the Global Sustainable Development Goals. In this brief BFAP provides an overview to their systematic framework and approach to identifying and prioritising agricultural initiatives that […]
BFAP expects a sharp, almost 50 thousand hectare contraction in the area planted to Barley in 2021, with producers shifting into Canola and wheat instead. BFAP analysts Divan van der Westhuizen and Tracy Davids unpack some of the reasons in an article published in the June 2021 Edition of Oilseed Focus. Barley stocks increased sharply […]
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for September 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for September 2021 was higher than expected, recorded at 6.6% (0.3 percentage points lower than in August 2021), following an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Oils […]
An analysis of agricultural wages in South Africa. The South African government is pursuing the dual goal of ensuring maximum employment and wages. The relevance of these goals cannot be disputed but they are often in conflict and hence a fine balance has to be struck between ensuring that workers receive a decent wage whilst […]
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained further momentum in October 2022, with a 0.9% increase from September 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and meat followed by vegetable oil products. Download here to read the full brief.
South Africa has faced multiple waves of COVID-19 infections since March 2020 with various levels of economic restrictions imposed to control the pandemic’s spread. Such actions included intermittent bans on alcoholic beverage sales, which have had a substantial impact on the wine sector. This purpose of this paper is to quantify this impact, using a […]
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP increased by 66.1% in the third quarter of 2020, owing to the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. Although this represents a major recovery, following a 51.7% decline in quarter 2, overall growth for the first 3 quarters of 2020 remains subdued with a -7.9% contraction compared to the first […]
These reports present findings from the Policy Prioritisation through Value Chain analysis (PPVC) methodology applied in Kenya. Three deep dive value chains were selected: Coffee, Aquaculture and Beef. To Read the executive summary, click here. And for the full report, click here.
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2021, with agriculture growing by 6.2% on the same basis. However, a direct comparison of Q2 2021 to Q2 2020, in real terms, reflects growth of 15.9% – exceptional performance in a weak economic environment. The star performer was the field crop […]
BFAP has undertaken a study, funded by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to provide a deeper understanding of the key drivers of quality of soybean products for feed use in South Africa. Dr. Wiltrud Durandt, Ms. Helga Ottermann, Ms. Louise Cloete and Mrs. Marion Delport authored a report unpacking the drivers of soybean product quality at farm-level, […]
It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers. This paper explores the possibilities for integration of small-scale farmers into the mainstream commercial broiler value chain in South Africa.
StatsSA reports that South Africa’s GDP contracted by 2% in the first quarter of 2020 relative to the fourth quarter of 2019 while the Agricultural GDP grew by 27.8% and contributed 0.5 percentage points to the overall GDP. Download the publication here.
Food Security – Prontuit | 15 November 2021 | KykNET South African’s grocery baskets are becoming smaller and are costing more. Prontuit discussed rising food prices and food security with Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz and Professor Ferdi Meyer, Managing Director of BFAP. Watch it here:
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained significant further momentum in September 2022, with a 0.5% increase from August 2022. As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods followed by meat. Download here to read the full brief.
BFAP calculates that agricultural GDP contracted by 2.1% in Q4 2019 when compared to Q4 2018. Read this one-pager for some more details and context behind this contraction. Download Here
The African Continental Free trade Area (AfCFTA) was signed in 2018 and entered into force in 2019. Some aspects of the agreement still need to be finalised. It is expected to increase intra-Africa trade opportunities when fully implemented. The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the trade opportunities as it is the mainstay of most […]
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages accelerated to 5.7% in January, from 5.5% in December 2021. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of cereals, bread, oils and fats, milk and eggs, and vegetables. Download here to read the full brief.
In light of its recent classification by the Department of Trade and Industry as an industry in distress, this paper undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of South African broiler production in the global context.
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages eased slightly, with a 6.2% increase in March compared to 6.4% in February 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of bread and cereals, meat, fish, dairy and eggs as well as oils and fats. Download here to read the full brief.
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
BFAP has undertaken a study, funded by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to provide a deeper understanding of the key drivers affecting sunflower seed quality, the impact of varying (lower) oil content on the industry, and potential interventions to achieve an upgraded state of the value chain. Download the Full Report. In the September 2020 […]
In this BFAP quarterly employment brief we highlight the agricultural job performance for the 3rd quarter of 2022. Although different surveys, such as the QLFS and the Agricultural Survey paint somewhat contrasting pictures, BFAP unpacks the reasons why we see the agricultural labour market as still robust and strong. Click here to read more.
One of the key sectors that contributed to the second successive quarterly decline was agriculture. Download this one-pager to read more about the factors influencing agriculture’s performance.
Louw Pienaar and Wandile Sihlobo wrote an opinion piece in the Business Day. Article available here: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2021-08-25-make-kiwifruit-part-of-the-agriculture-master-plan/
BFAP calculates that agricultural GDP grew by 1.2% in Q3 2018 when compared to Q3 2017. Download this one-pager unpacking various sub-sector performances.
Fresh fruit producers and exporters find themselves in unprecedented times and murky waters. Evidence suggests that the current logistics situation – domestically and globally – is a cause for major concern, threatening the sustainability of agricultural investments and jobs. In this brief, BFAP and ABSA Agribusiness contextualises this critical issue. Download here to read the […]
With rapid exchange rate depreciation and an uncertain political climate in South Africa, BFAP explores food price trends over the next three months. Read more
The South African poultry industry is an important subsector within South African agriculture. It is the single largest contributor to total gross agricultural production value and has significant up and downstream multiplier effects through its long, integrated value chain.
The agricultural sector was the lone shining light – the only positive contributor to GDP with an increase of 15.1% from quarter 1 to quarter 2 of 2020 and a contribution of 0.3 percentage points to the overall GDP. Read this one-pager for more details around which subsectors contributed to this growth. Download here
South Africa’s agricultural GDP rose by 22.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2022 – a correction from the sharp decline in Q2 due to the delayed maize harvest. This publication contextualises the latest release of GDP statistics by StatsSA and provides insights on the major factors driving agriculture’s contribution to GDP. Find the brief […]
In the second quarter of 2022, the agricultural sector contracted by 7.7% quarter on quarter and 20.9% year on year. This follows a slower summer crop harvest, and a sharp rise in input costs, which more than offset revenue gains. Find the brief here.
It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers.
In this study, modelling techniques were applied to explore plum production profitability under different scenarios in order to aid decision-making in the industry. The analyses were done on two output levels: 1) a scenario-based stochastic simulation at farm-level that considers macro-economic factors, and 2) a sensitivity analysis of the effect of different production costs, Rand per […]
This BFAP brief strives to inform the perennial debate on the extent of market concentration in South Africa’s agriculture sector. The complexity of the country’s food system warrants relevant context on the issue, preventing generalisation and over simplification because of some debilitating data challenges. Read the full brief here and a shortened version that appeared in […]
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained momentum, with a 7.6% increase in May compared to 6.0% in April 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, meat and grain-based foods. Download here to read the full brief.
In the first quarter of 2022, the agricultural sector grew by 0.8% quarter on quarter and 3.6% year on year. While high prices resulting from international market dynamics are supporting revenue, sharp cost increases are constraining profits. For the full year 2022, BFAP expects positive growth in the sector, but the rate of growth is […]
In this report, BFAP assesses the adoption trends of GM maize seed in South Africa. The main objective of this ongoing Maize Trust supported initiative is to estimate the most recent maize production season’s GM maize planting areas and GM trait adoption trends, as seed sales figures become available, in order to expand the historic database on […]
BFAP was appointed by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to develop a user-friendly App Customisation for a dedicated group of farmers and app-users who would use it to record Canola Yield Losses during the 2020 harvesting season. The app was designed to feed geo-referenced data directly into a database for effective reporting and sharing. The […]
This study provides an update of the initial 2012 study and further focuses on the trade competitiveness challenges that the industry is facing and the impact of inconsistent tariff applications. The key indicators for industry growth and continuation include: Trade, tariffs and competitiveness Market development and consistency of supply Price discovery Yields Download the report […]
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP increased by 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021, but agriculture, which was the star performer in 2020, contracted by 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis. However, a direct comparison of Q1 2021 to Q1 2020, in real terms, reflects growth of 7.5%. This follows strong […]
Since our previous inflation brief in November 2021, the identification of the Omicron variant, combined with excessive rainfall in the summer rainfall areas, has presented the possibility of further supply disruptions that could affect global and local inflation. Food inflation figures for December 2021 came in at 5.9%, whilst food and non-alcoholic beverages were slightly more modest […]
In this BFAP quarterly employment brief we highlight the agricultural job performance for the final quarter of 2022. We unpack how two important factors, loadshedding and another big hike in minimum wages, are expected to affect employment levels in 2023, by using the blueberry industry as an example. Click here to read more.