Find BFAP’s most recent research, baselines and publications here. Subscribe to our newsletter at the bottom of the page to receive our news and work directly.
Access the Baseline 2022 publication through the BFAP Baseline Site. Click Here to download
Meat price increases were repeatedly highlighted in the domestic food inflation statistics in 2022. In this brief, Dr. Tracy Davids explores the direct and indirect drivers of this phenomenon and the prospects for normalisation in future. Download here to read the full brief.
March 7, 2023
In this BFAP quarterly employment brief we highlight the agricultural job performance for the final quarter of 2022. We unpack how two important factors, loadshedding and another big hike in minimum wages, are expected to affect employment levels in 2023, by using the blueberry industry as an example. Click here to read more.
March 4, 2023
In this report, BFAP assesses the adoption trends of GM maize seed in South Africa. The main objective of this ongoing Maize Trust supported initiative is to estimate the most recent maize production season’s GM maize planting areas and GM trait adoption trends, as seed sales figures become available, in order to expand the historic database on […]
March 3, 2023
South African year-on-year inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages increased to 13.4% in January 2023 – 1.0 percentage point higher than in December 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and animal-source foods, followed by vegetables. Download here to read the full brief.
February 6, 2023
The African Continental Free trade Area (AfCFTA) was signed in 2018 and entered into force in 2019. Some aspects of the agreement still need to be finalised. It is expected to increase intra-Africa trade opportunities when fully implemented. The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the trade opportunities as it is the mainstay of most […]
Potato fresh produce prices on South African markets can vary significantly depending on seasonality and the specific market under consideration. Qualitative characteristics (like potato class, size and packaging size) and even the potato cultivar or variety offered can also play a role. BFAP undertook a hedonic price modelling study to inform industry stakeholders on the key […]
January 27, 2023
Month-on-month inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages has been losing momentum from October 2022 (+0.9%) to December 2022 (+0.4%). Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and vegetable oil products, followed by animal-source foods. Download here to read the full brief.
December 12, 2022
South Africa’s agricultural GDP rose by 22.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2022 – a correction from the sharp decline in Q2 due to the delayed maize harvest. This publication contextualises the latest release of GDP statistics by StatsSA and provides insights on the major factors driving agriculture’s contribution to GDP. Find the brief […]
In this BFAP quarterly employment brief we highlight the agricultural job performance for the 3rd quarter of 2022. Although different surveys, such as the QLFS and the Agricultural Survey paint somewhat contrasting pictures, BFAP unpacks the reasons why we see the agricultural labour market as still robust and strong. Click here to read more.
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) should not be seen as something that is done at the end of an initiative or programme to report on historic performance but rather a tool to provide real time information and insights that enable efficient and effective decision making to drive future sustainability and impact. In this brief, BFAP introduces […]
November 28, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained further momentum in October 2022, with a 0.9% increase from September 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods and meat followed by vegetable oil products. Download here to read the full brief.
BFAP was appointed by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to repeat the soybean calculator app roll out first developed in 2021. The team visited a dedicated study group of farmers who collaborated in measuring Soybean Yield losses during the 2022 harvesting season, with special focus on higher moisture content harvesting. Download the report summarising outcomes here: https://old.bfap.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Soybean-Yield-Loss-App_Report-2022_final-template_review.pdf
October 31, 2022
Agricultural has the ability to play a significant role in value chain decarbonisation and in reducing poverty by improving food security and creating sustainable jobs – all critical objectives within the Global Sustainable Development Goals. In this brief BFAP provides an overview to their systematic framework and approach to identifying and prioritising agricultural initiatives that […]
October 20, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained significant further momentum in September 2022, with a 0.5% increase from August 2022. As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods followed by meat. Download here to read the full brief.
The Government of the Republic of Zambia has committed to transforming the economy to support economic growth and facilitate job creation. Central to the transformation agenda is a commitment to open trade regime for agricultural exports and imports. This collaboration between researchers from the World Bank, BFAP and IAPRI demonstrates and quantifies Zambia’s potential gains […]
October 3, 2022
In the second quarter of 2022, the agricultural sector contracted by 7.7% quarter on quarter and 20.9% year on year. This follows a slower summer crop harvest, and a sharp rise in input costs, which more than offset revenue gains. Find the brief here.
September 27, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained significant further momentum in August 2022, with a 1.8% increase from July 2022 (representing the highest month-on-month increase since April 2016). As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, followed by grain-based foods and animal-source foods. Download here to […]
September 26, 2022
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
August 31, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained further momentum in July 2022, with a 1.1% increase from June 2022, resulting in the latest annual figure being 9.7%. As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, followed by meat and grain-based foods. Download here to read the […]
July 27, 2022
Inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages continued to gain momentum in June 2022, with similar inflation levels last seen in March 2017. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in meat and breads / cereals, as well as plant oil products and dairy and eggs. Download here to read the full brief.
An analysis of agricultural wages in South Africa. The South African government is pursuing the dual goal of ensuring maximum employment and wages. The relevance of these goals cannot be disputed but they are often in conflict and hence a fine balance has to be struck between ensuring that workers receive a decent wage whilst […]
These reports present findings from the Policy Prioritisation through Value Chain analysis (PPVC) methodology applied in Kenya. Three deep dive value chains were selected: Coffee, Aquaculture and Beef. To Read the executive summary, click here. And for the full report, click here.
These reports present findings from the Policy Prioritisation through Value Chain analysis (PPVC) methodology applied in Kenya. Three deep dive value chains were selected: Coffee, Aquaculture and Beef. To Read the executive summary, click here. And for the full report, click here.
These reports present findings from the Policy Prioritisation through Value Chain analysis (PPVC) methodology applied in Kenya. Three deep dive value chains were selected: Coffee, Aquaculture and Beef. To Read the executive summary, click here. And for the full report, click here.
June 30, 2022
Competition for land and water, always present, is becoming more prevalent across all sectors of the economy. The sustainable management of these finite resources will ultimately determine the ability of South Africa to deliver against the increasingly interconnected and complex agenda around improved livelihoods, while maintaining and protecting the planet. Download here to read the […]
June 28, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained momentum, with a 7.6% increase in May compared to 6.0% in April 2022. Food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in plant oil products, meat and grain-based foods. Download here to read the full brief.
June 14, 2022
In the first quarter of 2022, the agricultural sector grew by 0.8% quarter on quarter and 3.6% year on year. While high prices resulting from international market dynamics are supporting revenue, sharp cost increases are constraining profits. For the full year 2022, BFAP expects positive growth in the sector, but the rate of growth is […]
June 8, 2022
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
June 1, 2022
South Africa is exceptionally vulnerable to climate variability and changing weather patterns since it is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and limited in high potential cropping land. Governments, the private sector, donor organisations and the public worldwide are making firm commitments to accelerate mitigation and adaptation actions to address climate change, and the pressure for […]
May 31, 2022
Fresh fruit producers and exporters find themselves in unprecedented times and murky waters. Evidence suggests that the current logistics situation – domestically and globally – is a cause for major concern, threatening the sustainability of agricultural investments and jobs. In this brief, BFAP and ABSA Agribusiness contextualises this critical issue. Download here to read the […]
May 30, 2022
One in five farmers in South Africa plans to leave the sector in the next decade, research shows. Stellenbosch University PhD graduate and BFAP researcher Kandas Cloete investigated farm-level exit decisions and exit rates in commercial agriculture in South Africa, looking into the various reasons farmers plan to leave the sector. A media report can be read […]
May 19, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages eased slightly, with a 6.0% increase in April compared to 6.2% in March 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of vegetables oils and meat, with inflation on bread and cereals also gaining momentum. Download here to read the full brief or listen to the […]
April 22, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages eased slightly, with a 6.2% increase in March compared to 6.4% in February 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of bread and cereals, meat, fish, dairy and eggs as well as oils and fats. Download here to read the full brief.
April 14, 2022
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
March 29, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages accelerated even further, with a 6.4% increase in February compared to 5.7% in January 2022. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of oils and fats, meat, vegetables and fish. Download here to read the full brief.
March 11, 2022
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 1.2% in the last quarter of 2021. For the full year 2021, South Africa’s GDP increased by 4.9%, with agriculture, forestry and fisheries at 12.2%. The agricultural industry expanded by 8.3%, with the growth in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was driven mostly by an 11% […]
March 9, 2022
In this webinar, BFAP provided an annual Baseline Outlook Projection for 2022-2031 for the South African blueberry industry. Furthermore, this outlook is incorporated into three financial simulation models for three typical blueberry enterprises to contextualise farm level production within a national and global context. The webinar can be watched here and the BFAP presentation can […]
March 7, 2022
South Africa’s summer crops recovered remarkably in February from extremely wet conditions earlier in the year. Despite lower volumes compared to the record levels achieved in 2021, high global prices will support higher revenue. In this brief, BFAP also considers how the current turmoil in global markets will affect South Africa’s agricultural performance. Read or […]
February 22, 2022
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages accelerated to 5.7% in January, from 5.5% in December 2021. This was underpinned by an uptick in the price of cereals, bread, oils and fats, milk and eggs, and vegetables. Download here to read the full brief.
February 17, 2022
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a global heightened awareness of hand hygiene, with a specific focus on proper hand washing and the use of hand sanitisers (HS) to limit the spread of the virus. During mid- 2021 BFAP and the Plant Pathology Division within the Department of Plant and Soil Sciences at the University […]
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a global heightened awareness of hand hygiene, with a specific focus on proper hand washing and the use of hand sanitisers (HS) to limit the spread of the virus. During mid- 2021 BFAP and the Plant Pathology Division within the Department of Plant and Soil Sciences at the University […]
February 1, 2022
In this publication, BFAP contextualises recent rainfall statistics and presents its view on the impact of excessive rainfall on summer crop production in the 2021/2022 season. Read or download the full report here.
January 31, 2022
Prof Ferdi Meyer discusses the contribution of South Africa’s agricultural sector as well as the informal agricultural market to ensure food security in Southern Africa. Watch it here:
January 24, 2022
Since our previous inflation brief in November 2021, the identification of the Omicron variant, combined with excessive rainfall in the summer rainfall areas, has presented the possibility of further supply disruptions that could affect global and local inflation. Food inflation figures for December 2021 came in at 5.9%, whilst food and non-alcoholic beverages were slightly more modest […]
December 14, 2021
Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).
Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).
December 9, 2021
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 1.5% in quarter 3. Based on a year on year comparison, agriculture contracted by 7.2%. While this was below expectation, it was largely a timing issue, where the largest portion of maize was delivered in Q2 2021, as opposed to the previous seasons’ crop which was largely delivered […]
December 8, 2021
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
December 5, 2021
The Food Dialogue sessions are presented by the Southern Africa Food Lab, an initiative of the Faculty of AgriSciences at Stellenbosch University. It regularly brings together diverse, influential stakeholders in Southern Africa food systems to respond to systemic issues in creative ways and to inspire change in how we think and act on complex social […]
November 25, 2021
Food Security – Prontuit | 15 November 2021 | KykNET South African’s grocery baskets are becoming smaller and are costing more. Prontuit discussed rising food prices and food security with Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz and Professor Ferdi Meyer, Managing Director of BFAP. Watch it here:
November 24, 2021
Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).
November 18, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for October 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for October 2021 was 6.1%, showing a slight moderation from September levels. Among food categories, oils / fats (+20.9% year-on-year), meat (+9.1%) and vegetables (+7.2%) exhibited the […]
November 15, 2021
Louw Pienaar and Wandile Sihlobo wrote an opinion piece in the Business Day. Article available here.
November 8, 2021
Ferdi Meyer and Tracy Davids wrote an opinion piece unpacking the opportunities and limits of import replacement for South African veggie oils. Read the full brief here and a shortened version that appeared in the Business Day here. For enquiries, please contact Ferdi Meyer (ferdi@bfap.co.za) or Tracy Davids (tracy@bfap.co.za).
BFAP was appointed by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to develop a user-friendly App Customisation and visited a dedicated study group of farmers who collaborated in measuring Soybean Yield losses during the 2021 harvesting season. The app was designed to feed geo-referenced data directly into a database for effective reporting and sharing. Download the report summarising outcomes […]
BFAP was appointed by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to develop a user-friendly App Customisation for a dedicated group of farmers and app-users who would use it to record Canola Yield Losses during the 2020 harvesting season. The app was designed to feed geo-referenced data directly into a database for effective reporting and sharing. The […]
November 5, 2021
BFAP has undertaken a study, funded by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to provide a deeper understanding of the key drivers of quality of soybean products for feed use in South Africa. Dr. Wiltrud Durandt, Ms. Helga Ottermann, Ms. Louise Cloete and Mrs. Marion Delport authored a report unpacking the drivers of soybean product quality at farm-level, […]
Soybeans and its related products are used in a multitude of forms in different food products. The main soy derivative products produced for the human food market are full-fat soybean meal, white flakes (also referred to as defatted soybean meal), textured vegetable protein (TVP), soy concentrates and soy isolates. Full fat soybean meal is mainly […]
October 25, 2021
Louw Pienaar took part in the monthly series held by Beanstalk Global & The PMA in South Africa, with the spotlight on kiwifruit this month. Read more about it here.
October 21, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for September 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for September 2021 was higher than expected, recorded at 6.6% (0.3 percentage points lower than in August 2021), following an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Oils […]
September 23, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for August 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for August 2021 was higher than expected, at 6.9%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Among food categories, oils / fats (+21.3% year-on-year) and meat […]
September 20, 2021
Tracy Davids and Ferdi Meyer wrote an opinion piece in the Business Day. The article is available here.
September 19, 2021
South Africa has faced multiple waves of COVID-19 infections since March 2020 with various levels of economic restrictions imposed to control the pandemic’s spread. Such actions included intermittent bans on alcoholic beverage sales, which have had a substantial impact on the wine sector. This purpose of this paper is to quantify this impact, using a […]
September 17, 2021
The 2021 edition of the BFAP Baseline was launched on 15 September 2021. The Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural and agro-processing production, consumption, prices and trade for the period 2021 to 2030. It considers the performance of South African agriculture and agro-processing and their contribution to inclusive growth and economic prosperity in the South […]
The following videos of the event are available: The full launch Presentation by Ferdi Meyer (fostering growth and sustainability of inclusive food value chains) Presentation by Tracy Davids (overview of BFAP Baseline – markets, profitability & food prices) Panel discussion (moving from plans to action and successful implementation) Side discussions were also recorded, delving deeper into the specifics […]
September 16, 2021
This BFAP brief strives to inform the perennial debate on the extent of market concentration in South Africa’s agriculture sector. The complexity of the country’s food system warrants relevant context on the issue, preventing generalisation and over simplification because of some debilitating data challenges. Read the full brief here and a shortened version that appeared in […]
September 9, 2021
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2021, with agriculture growing by 6.2% on the same basis. However, a direct comparison of Q2 2021 to Q2 2020, in real terms, reflects growth of 15.9% – exceptional performance in a weak economic environment. The star performer was the field crop […]
August 27, 2021
This agricultural employment brief interprets and contextualises the latest quarterly labour force survey from Stats SA and provides insights on the major factors driving agricultural employment. Click here to read more.
August 26, 2021
Louw Pienaar and Wandile Sihlobo wrote an opinion piece in the Business Day. Article available here: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2021-08-25-make-kiwifruit-part-of-the-agriculture-master-plan/
August 19, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics, its associated causes and the cost of basic healthy eating for July 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for July 2021 was recorded at 6.7% (similar to June 2021), with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Oils / fats (+22.4% year-on-year) and meat (+9.4%) […]
July 30, 2021
South Africa’s pork industry is small, but possesses immense growth potential. Relative affordability makes the product appealing and the industry ought to be able to contribute meaningfully to food security. South Africa’s pork consumption is low compared to global norms, but products seem to be gaining popularity locally, and are starting to appeal to a […]
July 22, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics and its associated causes for June 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for June 2021 was recorded at 6.7%. According to the FAO world food price index, global food prices recorded for June decreased for the first time in 12 months. This was driven by […]
June 24, 2021
This report gives an overview of food inflation dynamics and its associated causes for May 2021. Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for May 2021 was recorded at 6.7%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021 and representing the highest level of food inflation since July 2017. Main driving forces included plant oil supply […]
June 10, 2021
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP increased by 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021, but agriculture, which was the star performer in 2020, contracted by 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis. However, a direct comparison of Q1 2021 to Q1 2020, in real terms, reflects growth of 7.5%. This follows strong […]
June 4, 2021
The results from the latest labour market survey are unpacked in this Agricultural Employment Brief. We explain potential reasons behind the reported drastic decline in farm employment in the past few quarters, which seems to stand in contrast with the recent performance of the industry. Click here to read more.
June 2, 2021
Over the past few years, in South Africa, there has been a slow but steady trend within the local feed industry from using imported to domestically produced soybean meal as the domestic soybean crushing industry matured. To include locally produced soybean meal in their formulations/rations, the feed industry requires a reliable and consistent supply of […]
Over the past 10 years (2010-2020) the South African soyabean industry has been one of the country’s biggest agricultural and agro-processing success stories. The area planted has more than doubled, production has nearly tripled and major investments in processing facilities have boosted total crushing capacity to 2.2 million tons (1.76 mil tons @ 80% utilisation) […]
June 1, 2021
BFAP expects a sharp, almost 50 thousand hectare contraction in the area planted to Barley in 2021, with producers shifting into Canola and wheat instead. BFAP analysts Divan van der Westhuizen and Tracy Davids unpack some of the reasons in an article published in the June 2021 Edition of Oilseed Focus. Barley stocks increased sharply […]
May 25, 2021
Maize prices remain high – despite the expectation of a bumper harvest. BFAP’s Tracy Davids and Wandile Sihlobo (Agbiz) unpack some key reasons in this article – first written for Business Day – suggesting that global drivers are the major reason for persistently high prices domestically. The biggest factor is strong import demand from China, […]
Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for April 2021 was recorded at 6.3%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021. Main driving forces included high global commodity prices and an increase in domestic manufacturing and distribution costs – not expected to abate soon. In this brief BFAP explores the cost of basic healthy eating, […]
In March 2021, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 5.7% from March 2020 and 0.8% from February 2021. The BFAP thrifty healthy food basket, which represents a more diverse basket than the CPI, increased by 8.6% from March 2020 and 1.4% from February 2021. Food inflation was mostly driven by oils and fats, along […]
The national economy saw a record annual decline of -7%, the biggest contraction since at least 1946. By contrast, the agriculture sector realised an annual real GDP growth of 13.1%, which was the only sector, apart from government services, that saw any expansion. Click here to read more
In this study, modelling techniques were applied to explore plum production profitability under different scenarios in order to aid decision-making in the industry. The analyses were done on two output levels: 1) a scenario-based stochastic simulation at farm-level that considers macro-economic factors, and 2) a sensitivity analysis of the effect of different production costs, Rand per […]
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP increased by 66.1% in the third quarter of 2020, owing to the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. Although this represents a major recovery, following a 51.7% decline in quarter 2, overall growth for the first 3 quarters of 2020 remains subdued with a -7.9% contraction compared to the first […]
November 26, 2020
The latest version of our ten year outlook is available here now. You can also watch recordings of the launch here.
BFAP has undertaken a study, funded by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to provide a deeper understanding of the key drivers affecting sunflower seed quality, the impact of varying (lower) oil content on the industry, and potential interventions to achieve an upgraded state of the value chain. Download the Full Report. In the September 2020 […]
The agricultural sector was the lone shining light – the only positive contributor to GDP with an increase of 15.1% from quarter 1 to quarter 2 of 2020 and a contribution of 0.3 percentage points to the overall GDP. Read this one-pager for more details around which subsectors contributed to this growth. Download here
StatsSA reports that South Africa’s GDP contracted by 2% in the first quarter of 2020 relative to the fourth quarter of 2019 while the Agricultural GDP grew by 27.8% and contributed 0.5 percentage points to the overall GDP. Download the publication here.
BFAP calculates that agricultural GDP contracted by 2.1% in Q4 2019 when compared to Q4 2018. Read this one-pager for some more details and context behind this contraction. Download Here
Food inflation for January 2020 was recorded at 3.7%. For more on what we expect for the rest of the quarter read here.
This study provides an update of the initial 2012 study and further focuses on the trade competitiveness challenges that the industry is facing and the impact of inconsistent tariff applications. The key indicators for industry growth and continuation include: Trade, tariffs and competitiveness Market development and consistency of supply Price discovery Yields Download the report […]
BFAP estimates that agriculture contracted by 8.9% on a year-on-year basis. Read this one-pager for some more details and context behind this contraction. Download Here.
Benign food inflation, as experienced in early 2019, seems to gaining momentum on the back of higher commodity prices and a weaker exchange rate. These factors are also expected to support inflationary trends going into the new year. Read more.
This piece documents discussions on recent trends on mechanization in Africa held at a workshop session on agro-industrial transformation as a driver for employment generation, food security and rural development in Africa which took place at the 6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists in Abuja, Nigeria in September 2019. Read more.
BFAP researchers in collaboration with various colleagues recently published a chapter in AGRA’s Africa Agricultural Status Report 2019, entitled “Avoid Hitting the Wall by Leveraging Investments of Midstream Heroes in African Food Value Chains.” This chapter leverages market analyses and value chain work that BFAP has been doing for many years on the African continent. Read […]
BFAP provides context for Agriculture’s contribution to GDP in Quarter 2, 2019. Read more.
September 2, 2019
From irrigated orchards to arid pasture areas, the costs and profits for each hectare of farming land vary wildly; The Business Day published an informative piece: Read more
Read more on agriculture’s contribution to the first quarter economic growth figures released recently
This report covers recent trends and a food inflation outlook over the next three months. Read report.
April 3, 2019
Read our latest press release on the competitiveness of the South African broiler industry here.
This report benchmarks the efficiency of South-African broiler producers. It considers terms technical efficiency and production cost in SA relative to other leading producers globally. Read more here.
February 25, 2019
To produce relevant insights, BFAP needs to process increasingly large datasets, “Big Data”, to inform decision-making. Marion discusses BFAP’s aim with the Data Science division with Grootplaas, click here to listen to the interview.
BFAP explores key factors expected to shape South Africa’s food inflation over the next 3 months and the cost of healthy eating. Read More.
February 4, 2019
In light of the preliminary area estimates published by the Crop Estimates Committee on 29 January 2019, Prof. Ferdi Meyer discusses impacts on the 2019 harvest year. Click Here to listen to the interview.
December 18, 2018
A reality check regarding current-season rainfall and expectations for the 2019 maize crop. Read more.
BFAP calculates that agricultural GDP grew by 1.2% in Q3 2018 when compared to Q3 2017. Download this one-pager unpacking various sub-sector performances.
BFAP explores key factors expected to shape South Africa’s food inflation over the next 3 months and the cost of healthy eating. Read more.
October 23, 2018
Investment into seed research is vital for a sustainable and competitive agricultural sector. In this context, this overview looks at the importance of a breeding and technology levy for wheat, barley and soybeans in South Africa. View the summary report here
One of the key sectors that contributed to the second successive quarterly decline was agriculture. Download this one-pager to read more about the factors influencing agriculture’s performance.
Dr. Tracy Davids gives and overview of the 10 year outlook for the South African agricultural sector – Watch the interview.
With rapid exchange rate depreciation and an uncertain political climate in South Africa, BFAP explores food price trends over the next three months. Read more
August 17, 2018
The Business Day reports on the BFAP baseline launch and the importance of good data to inform policy in South Africa. Read More
This paper sketches four plausible future scenarios for African food systems and discusses how policy choices will influence which of these scenarios is manifested in the next decades.
THE 2018 EDITION of the BFAP South African Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2018 to 2027, within the context of the current uncertainty regarding land reform policies…
The aim of this report is to compile from the wealth of literature available, a comprehensive overview of the definitions and causes of climate change, incorporate the results of climate models into the BFAP sector model, and simulate the possible economic impacts of climate change on the South African maize industry.
High oil prices and uncertainties regarding future reserves as well as the phenomenon of global warming have led to countries considering alternative means of energy generation.
Small scale farmer settlement and development is one of the key priorities in the National Department of Agriculture’s (DoA) Strategic Plan. A number of challenges related to the establishment and development of small farmers are, however, present. Amongst others, these challenges include a lack of access to land, financial services, mentorship programs and markets.
THE LONG-TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS FLAGSHIP RESEARCH PROGRAMME (LTAS) FOR SOUTH AFRICA. The LTAS (April 2012 – June 2014) aims to respond to the South African National Climate Change Response White Paper (2011) by undertaking climate change adaptation research and scenario planning for South Africa and the Southern African sub-region.
A new Sectoral Determination for the agricultural sector is due in 2016. The introduction of a minimum wage in the sector in 2003 and an increase in the minimum wage in excess of 50% in 2013 have had a substantial impact on the sector.
Modern agriculture has been exposed to an increasingly globalised society. Access to the global market has provided consumers with access to a wider range of products, at competitive prices. For the agricultural producer, competitiveness within the global context has become paramount, as increasing trade globally increases the level of competition faced by domestic producers.
The establishment of an “integrated and inclusive rural economy” has been identified by the National Planning Commission (NPC) as one of the key goals for achieving their vision 2030.
Before the maize market was liberalized, trade in South Africa was relatively simple. Under controlled marketing, maize prices were set by the Maize Board at levels that were in many years significantly higher than export parity levels.
On 11 November 2011, the National Development Plan 2030 of the National Planning Commission was released. The overall target is to reduce the number of households living below R448 per month per person from 39% to zero by 2030.
The objective of this study was to evaluate and analyse the South African sunflower value chain in order to assess the overall state of the industry. The study maps out the sunflower seed, sunflower oil and oil cake value chain, displaying the linkages between the various components within the South African oil seed industry.
Maize is the most important grain crop in South Africa, being both the major feed grain for the animal feed industry and the staple food for the majority of the South African population.
Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in South Africa is restricted to specific areas in the Northern and Southern Cape as well as the North West Province.
In the most recent State of the Nation Addresses (SONA, 2015a; 2015b) the President referred to a Nine Point Plan to revitalise the South African economy. Matters that took centre stage included agriculture in its role of promoting growth and food security and being one of the platforms through which increased equity can be achieved.
This report constitutes the phase one report, shedding light on the factors that have impacted on cane production in the South African sugar industry. Cane production has decreased significantly since 2000/01 driven by both a decrease in area under cane and cane yield. A 51% or just over 47 000 hectare decline in small-scale grower area under cane was the main driver of area decrease.
Following a period of extremely high feed costs, combined with stagnant producer prices for pork over the past few years, South African pork producers have found their profit margins under increasing pressure.
South Africa has only 1.5% high potential arable soils (soils best suited for cash crop production).
Hester Vermeulen particpates in a talk on the affordability of healthy eating in South Africa. Listen here.
It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers.
The South African government is pursuing the dual goal of ensuring maximum employment and wages. The relevance of these goals cannot be disputed but they are often in conflict and hence a fine balance has to be struck between ensuring that workers receive a decent wage whilst ensuring the long term financial sustainability of agribusinesses, investment and ensuring a conducive environment for maximum employment.
May 17, 2018
More than two months have passed since the World Health Organisation confirmed that the listeriosis outbreak in SA was the biggest globally, and consumers in the country were cautioned about the dangers of consuming contaminated products…
March 28, 2018
Louw Pienaar was interviewed by the SABC regarding the drought policy brief, recently published by the Western Cape Department of Agriculture and BFAP.
The recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in South Africa had a notable effect on the poultry industry – one of South Africa’s largest agricultural subsectors.
November 21, 2017
In an Afrikaans interview, Prof Ferdi Meyer explains the pivotal role that projections on agricultural prices, production, consumption and trade have on businesses and policy decisions.
The introduction of protected designation of origin (PDO) type certification schemes in countries outside Europe is a recent phenomenon as the philosophy of origin based foods obtains global traction.
Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected that year-on-year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%.
The South African poultry industry is an important subsector within South African agriculture. It is the single largest contributor to total gross agricultural production value and has significant up and downstream multiplier effects through its long, integrated value chain.
Maize is an important staple crop in southern Africa that has often been prioritised from a policy perspective, particularly in the imposition of export controls under periods of perceived uncertainty…
The 2017 edition of the BFAP South African Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2017 to 2026 and relates these to the agricultural sector’s footprint, and hence contribution, in the South African economy.
It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers. This paper explores the possibilities for integration of small-scale farmers into the mainstream commercial broiler value chain in South Africa.
This study uses vertical price transmission analysis, with time series econometric techniques, to determine how underlying commodity prices manifest in final retail prices and the associated reasons for it. Implications for food inflation are also reflected on.
Die droogte en relatief hoë temparature van 2016 het tot gevolg gehad dat verskeie komoditeitspryse relatief hoë vlakke gerealiseer het, veral die van aartappels en mielies wat beide rekortpryse behaal het.
The aim of the study is to enquire about the global competitive performance of the South African stone fruit industry for the period 1961 – 2012.
In light of its recent classification by the Department of Trade and Industry as an industry in distress, this paper undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of South African broiler production in the global context.
The study aims to improve understanding of meat demand in South Africa through the estimation of a Linear Approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) for the South African meat complex which includes beef, mutton, pork, and poultry.
Globalisation is becoming more of a reality, not only in the industrial sector, but also closer to home in the agricultural industry. It can be seen in the consolidation of input suppliers and the effect of international prices on local ones.
New findings in health research are a primary driver in the change of nutritional content of composite foods, cooking methods, and nutrient additions.
Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected2 that year-‐on-‐year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%. These projections seem to be in line with the last increases that are reported by Statistics South Africa. The impacts are already apparent in retail products derived from maize, with super maize meal increasing 22% year on year in January 2016.
Humanity faces some tough challenges in the 21st century. By 2050, we’ll reach ‘peak population’ with more than 9 billion people. That’s a quarter more mouths to feed with ever scarcer resources. We’ll be much older on average, which means that ageing nations in the Americas, Asia and Europe will become increasingly reliant on a shrinking proportion of young workers. And three out of four people will live in cities, a massive demographic shift that
will force governments to create more efficient and affordable solutions for the
delivery of clean water, sanitation and other essential services.
Dit is alombekend dat ’n kosteknyptang-effek in die landbousektor teenwoordig is wat impliseer dat produkpryse oor tyd stadiger styg as die pryse van landbou-insette.
The benefits to the primary fruit producers of establishing orchards and vineyards of certified, virus-tested, true-to-type plant material are not well understood. This article summarises the results of a research project which assessed the lifetime economic and non-economic benefits for fresh stone and pome fruit orchards, table and raisin grape vineyards, as well as canning peach orchards in South Africa (Midgley and Vermeulen, 2015; Midgley et al., 2015 and 2016).
Agriculture and food face dynamic, complex and interconnected risks that potentially threaten the supply of raw materials and the reputation of brands. NSF’s Responsible Sourcing services assist clients in addressing food security and brand reputation risks by building sustainable, resilient, secure supply chains as well as by demonstrating environmental and socially responsible sourcing practices.
Genetically modified (GM) crop technologies have made great strides since its first introduction in 1996. Although there is an extensive and growing body of literature on the economic impact of the adoption of GM crops in both developing and developed economies, there is only scant evidence that the technology has had any specific and distinguishable impact among female and male farmers. In economies where female farmers and female household members have a significant and often differentiated role in agriculture production, it is crucial to be able to answer this question.
Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).
The 2016 edition of the BFAP Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2016 to 2025 and relates these to potential actions aimed at increasing the agricultural sector’s contribution to economic growth.
Vir elke landboubedryf bestaan daar ‘n reeks kerndrywers of fundamentele faktore wat die rigting van ‘n bedryf kan
bepaal. Daar kan ook ‘n onderskeid getref word tussen drywers wat ‘n bedryf oor die korttermyn beïnvloed en die meer langtermyn strategiese drywers.
This report evaluates the impact of the 2015/2016 drought on the South African economy, on commercial and smallholder producers, and on consumers. Download.
Vir elke landboubedryf bestaan daar ‘n reeks van kerndrywers, of anders gestel fundamentele faktore, wat die rigting van ‘n bedryf kan bepaal. Daar kan ook ‘n onderskeid getref word tussen drywers wat ‘n bedryf oor die korttermyn beïnvloed en die meer langtermyn strategiese drywers.
The 2015 edition of the BFAP Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade
in South Africa for the period 2015 to 2024 and relates these results to policy and decision making in a turbulent
macro-economic environment.
THE 2014 EDITION of the BFAP Baseline is set within a turbulent macroeconomic environment. South Africa’s economic growth slowed to the lowest level in almost 5 years in 2013 and following continued labour unrest, particularly in the mining sector, the first quarter of 2014 marked a contraction of the economy for the first time since 2009.
Recent months have seen significant upward pressure in input costs in the potato industry. Some of these costs are considered as being administrative costs.
Vir ‘n geruime tyd al ontwikkel die Buro vir Voedsel en Landboubeleid(BFAP) toekomsprojeksies verskeie bedrywe in Suid-Afrikaanse land-bou.
Farmers across the world are annually faced with new challenges from a production, input and market perspective. Uncertain weather conditions caused some major shifts in supply patterns.
THE BFAP BASELINE 2012 presents an outlook of Southern African agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade for the period 2012 to 2021. This outlook is based on assumptions about a range of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, and social factors. The outlook is generated by the BFAP sector model, which is an econometric, recursive, partial equilibrium model.
Due to changes in price relations of arable crops, the profitability of crops has been shifting throughout the world. Crop rotations and cropping systems are being put to the test!
THE BFAP BASELINE 2012 presents an outlook of Southern African agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade for the period 2012 to 2021. This outlook is based on assumptions about a range of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, and social factors. The outlook is generated by the BFAP sector model, which is an econometric, recursive, partial equilibrium model.
Verlede jaar het twee artikels in CHIPS verskyn om moontlike scenarios random aanplantings en markpryse vir 2011 te skets. Die BFAP aartappel bedryfsmodel het die scenarios gesimuleer.
Die simulasie model wat deur die Buro vir Voedsel en Landboubeleid (BFAP) in samewerking met Aartapples Suid-Afrika vir die Suid-Afrikaanse aartapplebedryf ontwikkel is.